No One’s Crazy

  • We all do crazy stuff with money,because we’re all relatively new to this game and what looks crazy to you might make sense to me. But no one is crazy - we all make decisions based on our own unique experiences that seem to make sense to us in a given moment.

Luck & Risk

  • Nothing is as good or as bad as it seems
  • Luck and risk are both the reality that every outcome in life is guided by forces other that invividual effort.
  • We have brains that perfer easy answers without much appetie for nuance.
  • Be careful who you praise and admire.Be careful who you look down upon and wish to avoid becoming.
  • Not all success is due to hard work, and not all poverty is due to laziness. Keep this in mind when judging people, including yourself.

Never Enough

  • There is no reason to risk what you have and need for what you don’t have and don’t need.

  • The hardest financial skill is getting the goalpost to stop moving.

  • Social comparsion is the problem here.

    • it’s a battle that can never be won
    • the only way to win in a Las Vegas casino is to exit as soon as you enter

  • “Enough” is not too little.

Confounding Compounding

  • If something compounds - if a little growth serves as the fuel for future growth - a small starting base can lead to results so extraordinary they seem to defy logic.
  • Effectively all of Warren Buffett’s financial success can be tied to the financial base he built in his pubescent years and the longevity he maintained in his geriatric years.
  • His skill is investing, but his secret is time.
  • Good investing isn’t necessarily about earning the highest returns, because the highest returns tend to be one-off hits that can’t be repeated.It’s about earning pretty good returns that you can stick with and which can be repeated for the longest period of time.

Getting wealthy vs Staying Wealthy

  • Getting money is one thing. Keeping it is another.
  • More than I want big returns, I want to be financially unbreakable.And if I’m unbreakable I actually think I’ll get the biggest returns, because I’ll able to stick around long enough for compounding to work wonders.
  • Planning is important, but the most important part of every plan is to plan on the plan not going according to plan.
  • A barbelled personality - optimistic about the future,but paranoid about what will prevent you from getting to the future - is vital

Tails, You Win

  • Long tails - the farthest ends of a distribution of outcomes - have tremendous influence in finance,where a small number of events can account for the majority of outcomes.
  • Your success as an investor will be determined by how you respond to punctuated moments of terror, not the years spent on cruise control.
  • A good definition of an investing genius is the man or woman who can do the average thing when all those around them are going crazy.
  • Tails drive everything.

一个投资组合的整体收益中的一大部分是来自于该组合中那几个明显极大高于市场均值回报的投资。

Freedom

  • A common denominator in happiness - a universal fuel of jpy - it’s that people want to control their lives.
  • Controlling your time is the highest dividend money pays.
  • People like to feel like they’re in control

觉得自己可以掌控自己的时间，是获取幸福感的关键。当代人的工作半数是脑力劳动，导致大家下班之后也会在脑子里去思考工作的事情，就会觉得自己的时间不受自己控制，进而加深了焦虑和不幸福感。

Man in the Car Paradox

  • It’s difficult to learn from what you can’t see.
  • Wealth is what you don’t see
  • Modern capitalism makes helping people fake it until they make it a cherished industry.

某个人看起来有钱，和某个人很有财富显然不是一回事。财富是看不见的。当代社会的新消费主义，让每个人陷入一种需要让自己消费的东西来定义自己的陷阱。香奈儿的包，奔驰车，劳力士手表，The Things You Own End Up Owning You. 让自己摆脱消费主义，不仅能让自己的财物更健康，也可以让自己活的更加真实。

Save Money

  • The first idea - simple, but easy to overlook - is that building wealth has little to do with your income or investment returns, and. lots to do with your savings rate.
  • Investment returns can make you rich.But whether an investing strategy will work, and how long it will work for,and whether markets will cooperate, is always in doubt.Results are shrounded in uncertainty.
  • More importantly, the value of wealth is relative to what you need.
  • Past a certain level of income, what you need is just what sits below your ego.
  • You will desire less if you care less about what others think of you.
  • The flexibility and control over your time is an unseen return on wealth.
  • Having more control over your time and options is becoming one of the most valuable currencies in the world.

投资具有不确定性，所以想要靠投资来变得wealth是不可靠的。 全球化使得原先一些基于local社区的竞争变成全球竞争。这导致基于智力的竞争也变得不可持续，有不确定性。 在一个信息高度流通，许多以前的技术技能被自动化的世界里，竞争优势倾向于一些软技能，比如沟通，同理心这些。 有足够的储蓄，会让人有更多的空间，去等待对的时机，去做更具长期性的选择。就像读书的时候一些家境殷实的孩子，在选择专业，选择工作的时候，可以有更多的空间去调整。而不是哪家给的salary高就去哪里。

Reasonable -> Rational

  • A doctor’s goal is not just to cure disease.It’s to cure disease within the confines of what’s reasonable and tolerable to the patient.

纯理性的投资，不如合理的投资。人不是纯理性的生物，我们多数时刻的判断会受到外界事物影响。纯理性的投资又可能会导致非常极端的情况出现，这个时候人又会做出一些非理性的事情。而合理的投资，会相对容易让人坚持下来。

Surprise

  • Things that have never happened before happen all the time.
  • Investing is not a hard science
  • The correct lesson to learn from surprises is that the world is surprising. Not that we should use past surprises as a guide to future boundaries; that we should use past surprises as an admission that we have no idea what might happen next.

人们总是试图从过去的历史中来预测未来，但金融市场的过往历史，只告诉人们一条，事情总是超乎预料。唯一能预测的是每次都会有新的惊喜发生。和我们互联网人说的唯一不变的就是变化有一点异曲同工。

Room for Error

  • You have to give yourself room for error.
  • You have to plan on your plan not going according to plan.
  • The purpose of the margin of safety is to render the forecast unnecessary.
  • The best way to achieve felicity is to aim low
  • And if the cost of the downside is ruin, the upside the other 95% of the time likely isn’t worth the risk,no matter how appealing it looks.
  • The ability to do what you want, when you want, for as long as you want, has an inifnite ROI.

在做投资的时候，需要留出犯错的空间。如果一件事有5%的可能性会毁掉你，那剩下95%成功可能性 也是不值得。 这个观点好像显得有点保守主义，文中以俄罗斯轮盘为例，1/6的可能性被子弹打死，5/6的可能性赢得胜利。所以这里的error指的是最坏的打算。被layoff，股票回撤20%，不能算最坏的情况。资产归0，甚至负债，可能算一种最坏的情况。

You’ll Change

  • Long-term planning is harder than it seems because people’s goals and desires change over time.
  • An underpinning of pyschology is that people are poor forecasters of their future selves.
  • All of us are walking around with an illusion that we have just recently become the people that we were always meant to be and will be for the rest of our lives.
  • The first rule of compounding is to never interrupt it unnecessarily.
  • Regrets are especially painful when you abandon a previous plan and feel like you have to run in the other direction twice as fast to make up for lost time.
  • Endurance is key.
  • And when you consider our tendency to change who we are over time, balance at every point in your life becomes a strategy to avoid future regret and encourage endurance.
  • The trick is to accept the reality of change and move on as soon as possible.
  • Sunk costs - anchoring decisions to past efforts that can’t be refunded - are devil in a world where people change over time.

我们要接受自己思想的变化，不要被沉没成本羁绊住，让未来成为过去的奴隶。 在持续产生复利的事情上，我们要有足够的耐心和耐力。

Nothing’s free

  • Every job looks easy when you’re not the one doing it.
  • Like most products, the bigger the returns,the higher the price.
  • Thinking of marker volatility as a fee rather than a fine is an important part of developing the kind of mindset that lets you stick around long enough for investing gains to work in you favor.
  • Market returns are never free and never will be.
  • Find the price, then pay it.

天下没有免费的午餐，我们需要把市场的波动当作是一种入场的费用而不是市场对我们投资的罚金。 这种观点的转变，有助让我们自己相信市场的费用是值得的，让我们在市场波动的时候不会乱了方寸，提前退出投资市场的游戏。

You and Me

  • Competition for investment returns is fierce, and someone has to own every asset at every point in time.That means the mere idea of bubbles will always be controversial, because no one want to think they own an overvalued asset.
  • In hindsight we’re more likely to point cynical fingers than to learn lessons.
  • Inverstors often innocently take cues from other inverstors who are playing a different game than they are.
  • It’s the notion that assets have one rational price in a world where investors have different goals and time horizons.
  • An iron rule of finance is that money chases returns to the greatest extent that it can.
  • Bubbles do their damage when long-term inverstors playing one game start taking their cues from those short-term traders playing another.
  • A takeaway here is that few things matter more with money than understanding your own time horizon and not being persuaded by the actions and behaviors of people playing different games than you are.
  • The main thing I can recommend is going out of you way to identify what game you’re playing.

不遗余力的找到自己正在玩的游戏是哪一种游戏，短线，长线，没有对错，但个人不能在其中摇摆。以及根据自己的个性和能力，去评估自己擅长的游戏是哪一种。

The Seduction of Perssimism

  • For reasons I have never understood, people like to hear that the world is going to hell.
  • The simple idea that most people wake up in the morning trying to make things a little better and more productive than wake up looking to cause trouble is the foundation of optimism.
  • Tell someone that everything will be great and they’re likely to either shrug you off or offer a skeptical eye.Tell someone they’re in danger and you have their undivided attention.
  • Organisms that treat threats as more urgent than opportunities have a better chance to survive and reproduce.
  • extremely good and extremely bad circumstances rarely stay that way for long because supply and demand adapt in hard-to-predict ways.
  • To a realist who understood that necessity is the mother of all invention,it was far less scary.
  • Progress happens too slowly to notice, but setbacks happen too quickly to ignore.
  • And in careers, where reputations take a lifetime to build and a single email to destroy.
  • In inversting you must identify the price of success - volatility and loss amid the long backdrop of growth - and be willing to pay it.
  • Expecting things to be bad is the best way to be pleasantly surprised when they’re not.

生活中一个观察是悲观主义更短视，而乐观主义者更有耐心。 但事情变得糟糕的时候，人们的注意力更加容易被吸引。不知道这是不是人们内心中都有某种自我毁灭的情节在。（当然书中也说明了，这是一种自然进化的选择，对情况变坏敏感的人更加容易幸存下来）

When You’ll Believe Anything

  • The more you want something to be true,the more likely you are to believe a story that overestimates the odds of it being true.
  • There are many things in life that we think are true because we desperatyly want them to be true.
  • Everyont has an incomplete view of the world.But we forma complete narrative to fill in the gaps.
  • Hindsight, the ability to explain the past, gives us the illusion that the world is understandable.It gives us the illusion that the world makes sense,even when it doesn’t make sense.That’s a big deal in producing mistakes in many fields.
  • We all want the complicated world we live in to make sense.So we tell ourselves stories to fill in the gaps of what are effectively blind spots.
  • Risk is what’s left over when you think you’re thought of everything.

成功人士在复盘自己成功的原因的时候，往往会把自己的才智，努力过分放大。 人生在观察世界，解释世界发生的事情时候，会尝试用自己已知的信息去做解释。这和复合逻辑，因为你只可能用自己知道的信息去做分析。但它的问题在于，事情的内在原因往往超出我们个人认知，一个现象的发生往往有着各种复杂起因和随机因素。市场上的很多现象往往是不可解释的。用自己已知知识去做解释，是一件危险的事情。 我们都渴望确定性，安全感，潜意识里拒绝不确定性。但事情往往不由个人意愿去做转移。保持敬畏，不要过分自洽。

All Together Now

  • Go out of your way to find humility when things are going right adn forgiveness/compassion when they go wrong.
  • Less ego, more wealth.
  • Manage your money in a way that helps you sleep at night.
  • want to do better as an investor, the single most powerful thing you can do is increase your time horizon.
  • Become OK with a lot of things going wrong.
  • Use money to gain control over your time, because not having control of your time is such a powerful and universal drag on happiness.
  • Be nicer and less flashy.
  • Save. Just save.
  • Define the cost of success and be ready to pay it.
  • Worship room for error.
  • You should like risk because it pays off over time.
  • Define the game you’re playing, and make sure your actions are not being influenced by people playing a different game.
  • Respect the mess.

Confessions

  • Financial decisions are not made with the intention of maximizing returns, but minimizing the chance of disappointing a spouse or child.
  • I did not intend to get rich. I just wanted to get independent.
  • Independence, to me, doesn’t mean you’ll stop working. It means you only do the work you like with people you like at the times you want for as long as you want.
  • True success is exiting some rat race to modulate one’s activities for peace of mind